11 Bayesian Models

Bayesian models may seem like a whole new world, with different definitions of probability, new interprestations, and a suspicious lack of p-values (how do I know if it’s significant? What about the stars?) Bayesian methods are very similary to maximumlikehihood, however. If fact, under two conditions, Bayesian and ML models will give you the exact same answer. The first is as N approaches infinity. Of course this never actually occurs, but if you have enough observations, Bayesian and ML models will be the same. One advantage of Bayesian analysis, is that it often outperforms ML when your dataset is small. The second condition under which Bayesian and ML models give the same answer, is when the Bayesian priors are flat.

11.1 Using STAN in R

The rstanarm package makes basic Bayesian modeling easy. It copies the syntax from common R packages for GLMs and multilevel modeling so there is little learnin curve.